🌪️ Disaster Playbooks

1. Earthquake

Phase 1 — During the Shaking (0–2 min)

• Drop, cover, hold on — under table or desk, or against interior wall (NOT in doorway)
• If in bed: stay in bed, pull pillow over head
• If outdoors: move away from buildings, powerlines, trees — get into open area
• If driving: pull over away from overpasses and buildings; stay in vehicle
• Do NOT run outside during shaking — most earthquake injuries happen during exit attempts

Phase 2 — Immediate Aftermath (2 min – 1 hr)

• Check for fire (most common post-earthquake killer in urban settings); if fire: evacuate immediately
• Smell for gas; if detected: do not use switches/lighters, open windows, evacuate, shut off gas at meter
• Check for structural damage before re-occupying building: cracks in foundation, collapsed interior walls, chimney damage
• If coastal: immediately move to high ground — tsunami risk follows large subduction zone earthquakes within 15–30 minutes
• Expect aftershocks — some larger than initial quake; do not assume the shaking is over
• Shut off water if pipes are visibly damaged (prevents flooding from broken lines)
• Fill bathtubs NOW if water pressure still exists — service may fail soon
• Account for all members of your group

Phase 3 — 72 Hours

• Assess building safety: "Red tag" (condemned), "Yellow tag" (limited use), or "Green tag" (safe)
• Do not enter Red-tagged buildings for any reason — retrieve nothing; it is not worth it
• Water: treat all tap water until system integrity is confirmed; pressure loss = contamination risk
• Roads: bridges and overpasses may be compromised; avoid until inspected
• Medical: crush syndrome (traumatic rhabdomyolysis) from prolonged entrapment requires hospital care — aggressive IV fluids; do not remove trapped limbs without medical guidance (reperfusion can cause cardiac arrest)
• Trapped persons: call out, listen for responses; use tapping to communicate through rubble

Debris Rescue Priority

If someone is trapped in rubble, prioritize those who can communicate. Call out systematically. Use 3 taps as universal "I need help" signal. Do not attempt to remove large structural elements without shoring — secondary collapse kills rescuers.

2. Hurricane / Major Storm

Storm Categories & Expected Damage

Phase 1 — 72 Hours Before Landfall

• Decision: evacuate or shelter-in-place (make this decision early — roads gridlock 24–48 hrs before landfall)
• Fill all vehicles with fuel; ATMs and gas stations fail as storm approaches
• Fill bathtubs; fill every container with water
• Charge all devices; activate hand-crank radio
• Secure or bring inside all outdoor items (become projectiles at Cat 2+)
• Board windows with plywood (5/8" minimum) or close hurricane shutters
• Identify your highest interior room (bathroom, closet) away from windows
• Place important documents in waterproof bags
• Notify someone outside storm zone of your location and plan

Phase 2 — During the Storm

• Stay inside — do not go out during the eye; another wall is coming
• The eye can pass in 20–60 minutes; winds return suddenly from the opposite direction
• If flooding begins in your shelter: move to highest floor; have an axe to break through the roof if water rises
• Do not shelter under a bridge or highway overpass — wind tunnels increase speed
• If trapped in vehicle by rising water: escape when water reaches door handles (pressure equalization) or use window hammer; exit through window, not door

Phase 3 — Aftermath

• Water: boil all tap water until municipality confirms safety
• Mold: begins in 24–48 hours in wet structures; dry out or gut drywall within 24 hours if possible
• Generator: run outdoors ONLY — CO poisoning kills more people in aftermath than the storm
• Power lines: treat all downed lines as live; 6-meter exclusion zone minimum
• Refrigerated/frozen food: discard if power was out >4 hours (refrigerator) or meat thawed (freezer)
• Chainsaw safety: falling trees and chainsaws cause high injury rate in aftermath; wear chaps and eye protection

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Katrina killed 1,833 people. The overwhelming majority of preventable deaths shared common factors: failure to evacuate, sheltering in low-lying areas, and relying on official rescue that was delayed 3–5 days. Survivors who did well had: pre-positioned supplies for 7+ days, communicated their location to someone outside the area, and maintained group cohesion. The attic-to-roof escape route (axe in attic to break through if water rises) became standard preparedness advice after Katrina — over 100 people drowned in their own attics waiting for rescue that didn't come in time.

3. Wildfire

Fire Behavior Factors

• Terrain: Fire travels uphill dramatically faster — speed doubles for every 10° of slope. Never shelter in a valley downhill from approaching fire.
• Wind: Wind dries fuels, provides oxygen, and can shift fire direction suddenly. Spot fires from embers can ignite up to 2 km ahead of main fire.
• Fuel: Dry, fine fuels (grasses, shrubs) ignite easily; dense fuels burn longer. A drought year drastically increases risk.

Phase 1 — Go or Defend Decision (Before Fire Is At Your Location)

• GO — evacuate when ordered. Every minute of delay reduces escape window. "Prepare and stay" only with trained, equipped team in defensible structure with water supply.
• If evacuating: close all windows/doors (buys 10–40 minutes of ember protection even without defending)
• Take: documents, medications, N95 masks, water, phone chargers, change of clothes
• Drive with lights on; smoke can reduce visibility to meters
• If trapped by fire on road: do not shelter in a culvert (fire draws oxygen through them); pull off road away from vegetation, close all vents, cover with wool blanket, stay in vehicle below windows

Phase 2 — If Overtaken by Fire

• If on foot and fire is approaching: find a cleared area (paved road, rocky area, plowed field) with minimal fuel
• Lie face down in the cleared area, cover yourself with whatever non-synthetic material is available
• Breathe through wet cloth or nose close to ground (cooler air)
• Fire front passes quickly (seconds to minutes) — active flame passage is survivable if you're not in the fuel
• Do not run uphill away from fire — you will not outrun it
• Last resort "fire shelter": A space blanket or aluminized emergency blanket — deploy face down, pull foil over you, breathe near ground. This is a last-resort-only option; official fire shelters are purpose-built and even these fail in catastrophic conditions.

Smoke Inhalation

• Wildfire smoke contains CO, particulates, and chemical compounds from burning structures (many highly toxic)
• N95 masks filter particles but not CO or chemical vapors — ineffective against smoke in prolonged exposure
• AQI >150: limit outdoor activity; >300: stay indoors with air filtration; mask outdoors
• Children, elderly, and those with respiratory conditions deteriorate faster
• Symptoms: coughing, hoarseness, stridor (harsh breathing sound) = airway involvement = medical emergency

Hardening Your Home Before Fire Season

• Zone 0 (0–1.5 m from structure): non-combustible materials only — gravel, rock, concrete
• Zone 1 (1.5–10 m): low-growing plants, irrigated; remove dead material; no woodpiles
• Zone 2 (10–30 m): thin trees (10 ft spacing), remove ladder fuels (low branches), mow grass short
• Zone 3 (30–100 m): reduce fuel density; clear brush corridors; firebreaks
• Metal mesh vents (1/8" or smaller) keep embers out of attic and crawlspace

4. Flood

Flood Types

The 6-Inch Rule

Moving water at 6 inches depth can knock an adult off their feet. At 12 inches, water can carry a vehicle. At 2 feet, most vehicles float and lose steering. Turn around, don't drown. More people drown in vehicles attempting to cross flooded roads than in any other flood scenario.

Phase 1 — Immediate (Flood Warning Issued)

• Fill all water containers NOW — floodwater contaminates systems; supply may be cut
• Move valuables and critical items to upper floors
• Shut off electricity at the breaker if flooding is imminent — do not wait until water is at outlets
• Shut off gas at the meter
• Do not drive unless evacuating on a confirmed clear route
• If evacuating: go perpendicular to flood flow direction, not upstream against it

Phase 2 — In Floodwater

• Never enter floodwater without knowing the depth and what's below the surface (open manholes, downed power lines, debris)
• Use a stick to probe the ground ahead of you when wading
• If swept away: float on back, feet downstream (feet absorb impact from obstacles), steer toward bank
• Vehicle in rising water: escape when water reaches door handle level; equalize pressure by opening window partway; exit through window
• If on vehicle roof: signal for rescue; do not attempt to swim unless shore is very close and current is slow

Phase 3 — After Flooding

• All floodwater is sewage — treat as contaminated; wear gloves and rubber boots during cleanup
• Mold: buildings must be dried within 24–48 hours; remove drywall to studs; use bleach solution on structural wood (0.5 cup bleach per gallon water)
• Electrical: have a licensed electrician inspect before restoring power
• Structural: foundation damage, soil erosion under footings, and basement flooding can compromise structural integrity invisibly
• Food: any food (including commercially canned) that contacted floodwater should be discarded
• Water wells: must be tested for bacterial contamination after flooding

5. Pandemic / Disease Outbreak

Key Decision Timeline

With most airborne respiratory pandemics, the critical window is the first 2–4 weeks after community spread is detected in your area. After that, containment becomes progressively less effective. Early aggressive action — isolation, supply acquisition, reduced contact — is far more effective than later action.

Phase 1 — First 72 Hours (Report of Outbreak)

• Acquire supplies immediately: 90-day food supply, medications, N95 masks, gloves, hand sanitizer, pulse oximeter
• Identify your household isolation protocol: who gets isolated and where if they become sick
• Review your water supply — illness may disrupt municipal services
• Reduce social contacts before mandatory closures — early voluntary reduction is more effective than late mandatory
• Fill prescriptions; acquire OTC medications (acetaminophen, antihistamines, electrolytes)
• Brief all household members on hygiene protocol

Phase 2 — Household Illness Protocol

• Isolate sick person in single room with window for ventilation; dedicated bathroom if possible
• Designate one caregiver; all others minimize contact
• Caregiver: N95, eye protection, gloves, gown; dispose of PPE after each care session
• Monitor O2 saturation with pulse oximeter: ≥95% = acceptable; 90–94% = concerning; <90% = emergency
• Track temperature, respiratory rate, confusion — deterioration indicators
• Hydration: critical for recovery; set 500 ml/2-hour fluid goal
• When to seek help: severe difficulty breathing, persistent chest pain, confusion, inability to stay awake, bluish lips/face

Disease Transmission Reduction Hierarchy

1. Eliminate exposure: Don't be around sick people (most effective)
2. Ventilation: Outdoor air, open windows, HEPA filtration reduce aerosol concentration
3. Distance: >2 meters reduces droplet risk substantially
4. Time: Reduce duration of exposure in any setting
5. Masks: N95 on both sick and well provides significant protection
6. Hand hygiene: Prevents fomite transmission; critical after touching shared surfaces

Community Pandemic Governance

• Quarantine perimeter: restrict movement in/out of community; single entry point with health screening
• Contact tracing team: 2–3 people designated to track illness contacts and enforce quarantine
• Supply distribution: centralized handling reduces contact; pre-packaged for minimal person-to-person touch
• Mental health: social isolation causes serious psychological harm; structured community contact (outdoor, distanced) is important
• Dead: wrap in impermeable bags; burial away from water sources; handlers use full PPE

6. Grid-Down / EMP Event

What Fails When the Grid Goes Down

EMP vs. Grid Failure — Key Difference

A standard grid failure (weather, equipment) leaves electronics functional — they just have no power. An EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) from a high-altitude nuclear detonation or purpose-built weapon can damage or destroy electronic components even when not powered. After an EMP:

• Modern vehicles (2000+): likely partially or fully disabled by ECU damage
• Older vehicles (pre-1980): largely immune if not electronically controlled
• Electronics in Faraday cages: protected — metal boxes, metal-lined bags, or grounded metal containers
• Grid-scale infrastructure: transformers take 12–18 months to manufacture and replace — an EMP that destroys the grid is potentially a 1–3 year recovery scenario

Phase 1 — First 72 Hours (Grid Down)

• Preserve cold chain immediately: eat refrigerated food first (spoils in 4 hrs), then frozen (spoils in 48 hrs)
• Fill all containers with water from tap before pressure drops
• Confirm who else is in your household / group; establish meeting point if separated
• Activate ham radio or battery-powered shortwave radio to gather information
• Do not open food stockpile unnecessarily — extend current food first
• Do not run generators indoors; CO kills more people in outages than the original event
• Fuel: siphon vehicles that are non-functional (EMP scenario) into containers; stabilize stored fuel with PRI-G or similar
• Cash: withdraw cash if ATMs are functional — they may not be soon
• Security: lock down; desperate people begin scavenging within 48–72 hours in severe scenarios

Long-Term Grid-Down Priorities (Week 1–Month 1)

1. Water independence: Rain collection, well pump (hand-powered), river filtration
2. Food independence: Gardening, foraging, animal husbandry
3. Communication: Ham radio network, community information sharing
4. Security: Community watch, perimeter awareness
5. Medical: Assess medication needs; identify chronic condition vulnerabilities
6. Fuel: Transition to wood, biomass; conserve liquid fuel for critical vehicles only

Case Study: Puerto Rico After Maria (2017)

Hurricane Maria destroyed Puerto Rico's electrical grid in September 2017. Full grid restoration took 11 months for the last customers. Communities that survived best shared common features: existing social trust networks, shared resources (generators, water), ham radio operators who provided communication, and agriculture that could be restarted quickly. The official government response was delayed 3–4 weeks for many areas — survivors relied entirely on community-level mutual aid. The death toll (estimated at 2,975) was almost entirely attributable to loss of electricity-dependent medical infrastructure, not the storm itself.

7. Nuclear Event

See the full NBC Threats section for detailed protocols. This playbook covers the immediate decision framework.

Nuclear Event Decision Tree

Flash observed / nuclear detonation warning received
         ↓
Are you within visible distance of the explosion?
    YES → Get inside immediately, center of building
    NO (beyond horizon) → You have 15–30+ min before fallout arrives
         ↓
Are you within 10 km of ground zero?
    YES → Blast wave coming; brace interior wall; help injured after blast passes
    NO → Focus entirely on shelter quality for fallout
         ↓
What is your best available shelter?
    Basement of brick/concrete → Stay there ≥24 hr
    Interior room of any structure → Stay there ≥24 hr; improve as able
    No structure available → Move rapidly perpendicular to wind direction
         ↓
Were you outdoors after detonation?
    YES → Decontaminate before entering shelter
    NO → You're in good shape; shelter in place
    

Priority Actions by Time

• 0–15 min: Get inside; get to center/middle; seal vents; fill water containers
• 15–30 min: Decontaminate anyone who was outdoors; take KI if available
• 30 min – 24 hr: Monitor radiation via meter if available; rest; ration water; maintain shelter
• 24–72 hr: Reassess radiation levels; brief outdoor forays if dose rate is falling; begin planning for longer-term shelter and supply needs

8. Civil Unrest / Societal Collapse

The Collapse Timeline (Historical Pattern)

Phase 1 — Early Unrest (Days 1–7)

• Stay home; do not go out unnecessarily; avoid crowds
• Cover windows at night; do not show light that indicates life and resources
• Reduce noise (generators, music) that advertise your presence
• Establish contact protocol with immediate neighbors — mutual awareness dramatically increases security
• Do not brandish weapons; keep security capability non-visible
• Monitor local radio/ham for information; know what is actually happening vs. rumors
• Have a "go bag" ready in case you need to evacuate quickly

Phase 2 — Extended Unrest (Weeks 2–12)

• Form or join a community of 20–100 people — survival alone is extremely difficult long-term
• Establish clear governance: who makes decisions, how disputes are resolved, what the rules are
• Begin food production immediately — dependence on stored food has a hard deadline
• Establish barter network with nearby trusted groups
• Medical inventory: identify skills, medications, and equipment in your community
• Identify predatory groups operating in your area; avoid their territory; establish intelligence about their behavior

Negotiation Over Violence (Historical Insight)

Most survivors of extended collapse scenarios report that most encounters with strangers were resolved through negotiation, not violence. Violence is high-cost for both parties — injury, death, and resource expenditure without guarantee of success. The first offer in most encounters is information and negotiation, not aggression. Appearing to have little to steal while being clearly organized enough to be a costly target deters most opportunistic threats.

9. Chemical Spill / Industrial Accident

Shelter vs. Evacuate Decision

For industrial chemical releases, the choice between sheltering-in-place and evacuating depends on plume direction, duration, and concentration. Rule of thumb:

• Shelter in place: Best when cloud is short-duration (<30 min) or when evacuation would take you through the plume; seal building vents and windows
• Evacuate upwind and crosswind: Best when release is ongoing or will pass slowly; move perpendicular to wind direction first, then away from source

HAZMAT Placard System

Transport vehicles carrying hazardous materials must display diamond-shaped placards with a UN number and hazard class number:

Phase 1 — Chemical Release Alert

• Note wind direction from flags, trees, smoke — move perpendicular then away
• If indoors: shut all windows, vents, HVAC, fireplace dampers; tape gaps
• Move to interior room on upper floor (most vapors are heavier than air — avoid basements unless ordered otherwise)
• Monitor local radio for all-clear
• Do not re-enter affected area until authorities confirm safety

Decontamination After Chemical Exposure

• Remove all clothing immediately — captures ~80% of external contamination
• Flush exposed skin with large volumes of clean water for 15–20 minutes
• Eyes: flush with clean water 15 min, remove contacts, hold eyelids open
• Do not use neutralizing agents (vinegar for alkali, baking soda for acid) — they cause heat from reaction and may worsen burns
• Water dilution is always the first decontamination step for virtually all industrial chemicals

10. Multi-Threat Scenario Matrix

Some disasters combine threats. This matrix shows secondary hazards that follow primary events.

11. Phases of Collapse — A Timeline

Whatever the trigger, a serious, lasting disruption tends to move through the same phases — and what keeps you alive changes at each one. Knowing the timeline tells you what to focus on now, what comes next, and why each section of this guide matters when. The single biggest mistake is preparing only for the first week.